Where Should You Bet Your Career? An Economic View

How Supply, Demand, and Hidden Barriers Shape Your Real Opportunity

A veteran with top-secret clearance came to me, convinced her next career move was a sure bet. Years of military service, technical skills, a security clearance — she planned to move into federal HR software consulting. It sounded logical. Safe.

But the closer we looked, the clearer the cracks became — and those cracks reveal how anyone can (and should) think more strategically about where to bet their career.

The Hidden Hand Guiding Careers: Supply and Demand

Career advice often focuses on passion or credentials: “Do what you love,” or “Get this certification.” Reality is tougher.

Every career move — especially in tech — is shaped by the relentless forces of supply and demand.

It’s not just your skills — it’s how rare they are, and who’s hiring today and tomorrow.

Case Study: The HR Software Safety Net (That Isn’t)

My veteran friend’s logic:

• Federal government runs HR systems.

• She has clearance and relevant training.

• Demand must be there.

But the supply side told a different story. Federal HR consulting is a mature, flat market. Budgets are tight, vendors are entrenched, and many ex-military insiders think, “Go where my clearance matters.”

The demand isn’t growing — and the supply is stacked with people just like her. The “safe bet” was actually a crowded table with little upside.

GenAI: Where Demand Rockets—But So Does Supply

We compared this stagnant field to tech’s current darling: GenAI.

Everywhere you look, someone needs GenAI talent. Headlines, boardrooms, pilot projects — it’s booming.

But here’s the catch: the barrier to entry is low.

• Anyone can take a free course or fine-tune an open-source model.

• “GenAI expert” titles multiply overnight.

• GenAI is everywhere, so many people can gain real experience and also benefit from brand name recognition.

This is the trap of elastic supply: when it’s easy to skill up, thousands do it fast.

Look at prompt engineers — anyone with Python can add it to LinkedIn. Supply surges as fast as demand, and outside the bleeding edge, scarcity doesn’t last.

The Unbreakable Law: Barriers and Elasticity

To truly understand your career odds, in addition to demand, you have to look at barriers to entry—the frictions that keep supply from matching demand quickly.

• Low barriers (GenAI generalists, web dev): Build skills in months, join the market fast, crowd out early scarcity. Supply will catch-up.

• High barriers (security clearance, chip engineers, deep domain expertise): Take years to credential. Supply is almost fixed in the years range. Even when demand shoots up, supply can’t surge to match.

Think of careers like two lines racing to meet: Where barriers are low, those lines cross quickly—opportunity vanishes fast. Where barriers are high, scarcity persists.

Traditionally, the barrier for high-tech was high IQ — represented by advanced math skills and the ability to handle often grueling work. There was no “vibe” or glamor in coding when I entered the field. Are those barriers still there today?

Your unique advantage is at the intersection of high demand and slow, nearly-fixed supply.

Combine Strengths to Create Scarcity

Here’s where things get interesting for the veteran—and maybe for you, too.

It wasn’t about picking clearance or GenAI. It’s about the combination:

• Not many with federal top-secret clearance know GenAI well.

• Not many GenAI practitioners have top security clearance.

• The government and certain vendors are desperate to use GenAI responsibly in regulated, sensitive environments.

• Cutting the workforce will just move work to GenAI and contractors, as work still needs to be done in most cases.

That combo is where the supply stays thin and the demand is surging.

Hidden Talent Pipeline Shifts You Should Watch

But there’s another force shaping future scarcity — one few job seekers think about.

Teaching as an adjunct professor at Cal State Fullerton, I see it firsthand:

• International graduate enrollment in computer science is dropping.

• Domestic enrollment isn’t keeping pace with exploding demand in AI, security, and systems.

And working as a 40-something-year-old at FAANG until recently, I can say that many of my friends who lost their job are moving into early retirement or real estate investments, carried by NVIDIA stocks and high Big Tech compensation.

In three to five years, that means companies will be hunting for talent they can’t easily find.

Shrinking pipelines plus retirements = rare, durable opportunity.

Mapping Supply and Demand: Know Your Playing Field

Starting with some facts. Where talent supply comes from:

• Recent graduates (~79,000 CS majors/year)

• Career changers (bootcamps, self-study, often generalists)

• Foreign nationals (H-1B/L-1, constrained by caps and layoffs)

• Global/offshore talent (remote-ready, wage pressure on generalist roles)

Where demand comes from:

• Big tech (competitive, pedigree-driven, slow in downturns)

• Traditional enterprise (banking, healthcare, logistics, compliance-heavy)

• Startups (need generalists, funding cycles create volatility)

• Government/defense (specialists with clearance, deep domain)

How to Forecast Your Own Opportunity

Want to make a smarter bet on your future? Here’s how:

• Map true demand. What roles and sectors are visibly growing?

• Measure supply and barriers. Can people flood in, or is entry gated (clearance, domain expertise, advanced hardware, relationships)?

• Project lagged risks. Are talent shortages quietly building as students drop out and older workers retire? Is the issue temporary as supply dwindle?

• Find your scarcity intersection. Where do you have, or could build, a rare overlap? (Example: Clearance + GenAI, Hardware + AI Security, Healthcare + Data Privacy)

• Avoid the herd. Don’t just chase what’s hot — chase what’s scarce. Think of your career as the median outcome, not the max, and not the average.

Your Checklist for Career Advantage

• Audit your skills. What can you do or prove that’s genuinely hard for others to match?

• Network where friction exists. Sectors with true barriers open doors to those persistent enough to cross.

• Act early. Get in before supply catches up and premiums shrink.

Final Reflection: Think Like a Market Maker

Choosing your next role isn’t just about your interests or resume checkboxes. It’s about placing your chips where market forces will reward you — not just today, but years from now.

So when you make your next bet, ask yourself:

Where will supply stay scarce, barriers stay real, and demand keep rising?

Bet there — and bet early.