Why Junior and Manager-Level Tech Candidates Struggle — While Senior ICs Keep Getting Hired

Over the past year, I’ve watched something striking unfold across my network.

Junior candidates can’t break in.

Managers can’t stay in.

But senior individual contributors (ICs)? They’re still landing interviews, offers, and meaningful work.

It’s not just bad luck for some or good luck for others — it’s structural. Here’s what I see, what the numbers show, and what you can do about it.

Definitions Matter

Before we dive in, let’s define terms.

• Junior → Needs a senior. Learning, supervised, not yet owning the job solo.

• Senior → Doesn’t need a senior. Can own a domain or project end-to-end.

• Manager → Manages people, scope, or process but doesn’t necessarily own a business outcome.

• (Classic) Director / GM (P&L owner) → Runs part of the business and is accountable for profit, growth, or cost.

These are not just titles — they shape how the market values you.

Why Juniors Struggle

As a professor at Cal State Fullerton, I’ve watched a painful reality unfold. A large portion of my graduating class — bright, hardworking students — remains unemployed a year or more after graduation.

The numbers back it up:

• Entry-level hiring at big tech firms is down over 50% since pre-2020 (SignalFire, 2024).

• Startups have cut junior hiring by 30% or more.

• Unemployment among recent CS grads is over 6% — one of the highest rates among degree holders (New York Fed, 2024).

But it’s not just that there are fewer jobs.

The bar for juniors has quietly gone up.

Many “junior” roles now demand 1–2 years of experience with production tools — Terraform, Kubernetes, advanced React, CI/CD, incident management. I’ve helped students apply to jobs labeled “entry-level” that, five years ago, would’ve been mid-level.

In effect, juniors and seniors are competing for the same IC roles. And companies, facing tight budgets and GenAI-driven productivity boosts, pick the person who can deliver on day one.

Surveys show over a third of HR leaders would rather assign entry-level tasks to AI than hire a new grad (Business Insider, 2024). That’s how tough the ground is.

The promise of GenAI for many companies is to do more with fewer people, and if you are a company selling GenAI, a hiring spree damages your branding in a significant way. Think about it.

Why Managers Are Stuck

About a third of my unemployed director/manager level friends  — many from Amazon, Facebook, Google — have been unemployed for over a year.

Across tech:

• Google cut 10% of its managers and VPs in late 2023.

• Amazon raised its IC-to-manager ratio by 15%.

• Meta, Microsoft, Intel, and others have followed with similar cuts.

Middle managers are now:

• Too senior to compete for IC roles easily.

• Not senior enough (no P&L ownership) to land GM or P&L-owning director roles, even with a director title.

Glassdoor and Business Insider report that middle managers have made up nearly one-third of all tech layoffs — a steep jump from earlier cycles. Many are now accepting lower-level or lower-paying jobs just to get back in.

In my coaching, I see it too: managers struggle more to get interviews than even juniors. Why? Because companies increasingly want either hands-on doers or business owners — not middle management.

Good junior talent can always hustle their way into working for a startup. Just show up at an event, talk with people, ask about their problems, and offer a project.

Senior IC: The Market Sweet Spot

By contrast, senior ICs are doing noticeably better.

These are people who:

• Own complex domains.

• Stay current with tools, trends, and code.

• Deliver results without needing supporting experts.

I’ve seen it firsthand. The application-to-interview conversion rate of senior ICs that cleared the job requirements is much higher compared with managers working at similarly branded companies. Why?

Because it's less competitive.

Yes, the numbers you see on LinkedIn for senior IC applications might be high, but that’s because many applicants don’t fully match. If you meet the requirements as a senior IC and apply thoughtfully, your chances of landing an interview are much higher.

So, the market is thinning in the middle and bottom, but experienced ICs are still landing jobs, tough as it may seem.

Important Trends I See in the Labor Market

Here are some shifts shaping the market:

• AI isn’t just cutting headcount — it’s changing what matters. Senior ICs who pair technical depth with trends adaptability (like GenAI) are even more valuable.

• Some ex-managers are pivoting into fractional, interim, or consulting roles. This works best if they bring cross-company experience and know how to leverage their network.

• Manager-to-IC transitions are not easy but possible — if you invest in refreshing your technical hands-on skills.

• Juniors sometimes break in through nontraditional routes — like startups, open source, internships, or contract work — where hustle matters more than resume keywords.

What This Means for You

Here’s the hard truth:

👉 If you’re junior, specialize fast and go network. Build real, market-ready skills. Show you can own something. Impress those who can give you a job or recommend you.

👉 If you’re a manager, decide: keep searching (and maybe relocate to hubs), go hands-on again, go fractional, or push up to own a business line, even at a much smaller company?  Sitting in the middle is dangerous.

👉 If you’re a senior IC, stay close to the expertise and stay current with what’s in demand.  Your independence and expertise are your leverage.

Don’t Get Stuck

I wish I could tell you this market shift is temporary. But between GenAI, cost-cutting, and flattening orgs, the middle is getting squeezed — and the junior door is tighter than ever.

You may need to compromise or do something differently to break through.